(1) I’m from Austin, so I have some up close perspective.
(2) I work in tech and was part of the SF->Austin migration during COVID, coming back home for a bit (although I didn’t stay permanently).
A few thoughts:
First I agree that, big picture, a “return to the mean” is going to feel like a comedown after the boom, even though it isn’t really.
At the same time, from the POV of the Silicon Valley industries, Austin really is an outpost. It’s long been home to the back office jobs that are part of the tech ecosystem but don’t pay top dollar, not the heart of the ecosystem. During COVID it looked for a minute like that could actually change, with SF locked down and Austin open, people and companies that wanted to work in person really were moving some top jobs and leadership. But SF did eventually reopen and the wave of migration stopped. But Austin still became a much more important outpost during the COVID years, and I think it will keep the stature it gained.
(As an aside, the “location” taking a giant hit from SF reopening isn’t Austin, it’s remote work.)
Second, Austin has always overhyped itself. I think in part because Texans are very proud of themselves, and Austin is the prettiest and most glamorous part of Texas, there’s always been a regional spotlight shining brightly on the capital. The hype and the reality cause some misunderstandings, and I think that contributes to the coastal elites wanting to make hay over the return to the mean. But as you point out, though, it’s not the second Silicon Valley, it really is the first Austin, so a lot of this is that they just don’t get it.
All that said, these narratives are all overreacting to the short term. In the long run, the mean growth of Texas is so much stronger than California or New York that I have no doubt Austin will continue rise in prominence, even if it were just riding the wave of Texas sprawl. But I think land use reforms in Austin will make its rise quicker, healthier, and more inclusive. And in the long run that will make it less and less an outpost of the coasts, more and more a unique hub of its own.
But but but..that's my point: that "the POV of the Silicon Valley industries" (or New York publishers) is not a useful framing for understanding the city. Austin's tech economy is more than the back office for Alphabet and Meta, and its broader economy is more than just tech. The national press narrative only focuses on the high-profile stuff and people, which happen to be in tech, which skews the narrative.
To your second point, I think all cities are provincial in their own way. If I wasn't living here, but still writing about housing from NY or SF, I'd probably be looking at Austin with some bemusement—from cities that seem, from Austin's POV, like outposts in the landscape of pro-housing policy! 🤠
Ha, no worries...I mean, I agree with everything else you wrote. To the extent that Austinites and their leaders have been over-hypers themselves, they've contributed to the misunderstanding!
Ok so, disclaimers up front:
(1) I’m from Austin, so I have some up close perspective.
(2) I work in tech and was part of the SF->Austin migration during COVID, coming back home for a bit (although I didn’t stay permanently).
A few thoughts:
First I agree that, big picture, a “return to the mean” is going to feel like a comedown after the boom, even though it isn’t really.
At the same time, from the POV of the Silicon Valley industries, Austin really is an outpost. It’s long been home to the back office jobs that are part of the tech ecosystem but don’t pay top dollar, not the heart of the ecosystem. During COVID it looked for a minute like that could actually change, with SF locked down and Austin open, people and companies that wanted to work in person really were moving some top jobs and leadership. But SF did eventually reopen and the wave of migration stopped. But Austin still became a much more important outpost during the COVID years, and I think it will keep the stature it gained.
(As an aside, the “location” taking a giant hit from SF reopening isn’t Austin, it’s remote work.)
Second, Austin has always overhyped itself. I think in part because Texans are very proud of themselves, and Austin is the prettiest and most glamorous part of Texas, there’s always been a regional spotlight shining brightly on the capital. The hype and the reality cause some misunderstandings, and I think that contributes to the coastal elites wanting to make hay over the return to the mean. But as you point out, though, it’s not the second Silicon Valley, it really is the first Austin, so a lot of this is that they just don’t get it.
All that said, these narratives are all overreacting to the short term. In the long run, the mean growth of Texas is so much stronger than California or New York that I have no doubt Austin will continue rise in prominence, even if it were just riding the wave of Texas sprawl. But I think land use reforms in Austin will make its rise quicker, healthier, and more inclusive. And in the long run that will make it less and less an outpost of the coasts, more and more a unique hub of its own.
But but but..that's my point: that "the POV of the Silicon Valley industries" (or New York publishers) is not a useful framing for understanding the city. Austin's tech economy is more than the back office for Alphabet and Meta, and its broader economy is more than just tech. The national press narrative only focuses on the high-profile stuff and people, which happen to be in tech, which skews the narrative.
To your second point, I think all cities are provincial in their own way. If I wasn't living here, but still writing about housing from NY or SF, I'd probably be looking at Austin with some bemusement—from cities that seem, from Austin's POV, like outposts in the landscape of pro-housing policy! 🤠
Fully agree it’s not the right framing. Sorry if I hid that agreement too much in my original comment 😅
Ha, no worries...I mean, I agree with everything else you wrote. To the extent that Austinites and their leaders have been over-hypers themselves, they've contributed to the misunderstanding!
Move to Lisbon and keep immersing.
Sounds great! I need a few more paid subscribers first.
Ok I pay for yours if you pay for mine