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Andrew Burleson's avatar

One other small note: incremental doesn’t necessarily mean steps of a fixed size, it means steps that make sense in context. That’s going to mean something like a 50-100% increase in units on a lot as a baseline, but it could be bigger.

For example in NY and SF there are plenty of old small buildings or vacant lots surrounded by towers. I think the next increment there is another tower. (Although holdouts and speculation can make that hard to pencil, which is a different issue.)

Speaking to SF since I lived there and am more familiar, the “big incremental” is more than just FiDi. All through Soma, mission, and Hayes Valley I think the logical next increment is replacing 2-3 story buildings with 5-8 story buildings. And along corridors like Divisadero or Geary, same thing.

But also, consider that something like half of SF’s land area is on the west side. Sunset, and Parkside are largely single family, even the Richmond is mostly small buildings. Adding something like one 2-4 unit building per block out there every year would be many thousands of new units per year, which would be meaningful!

But even more important, consider if you could add one unit to every lot in all of Daly City and South SF and San Mateo and so on all the way down the bay and back up the other side. That would be a *profound* change in supply, nearly doubling the housing supply in just the first wave.

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AccessiblyUrban's avatar

This was a well written and acutely necessary article. Thank you for writing it!

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